Economists Wonder If Few or Many Will Benefit from AI
2023-08-11
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1Throughout history, technological progress has brought new wealth but has not always improved people's lives.
2Economists now say it is not clear whether artificial intelligence (AI) will help or hurt society.
3Simon Johnson teaches economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology near Boston.
4He said AI has a lot of possibilities. But he added, "We are at a fork in the road."
5A fork in the road is an expression used to describe a situation where the outcome is uncertain.
6McKinsey is a business consulting company.
7It said AI could add between $14 trillion and $22 trillion of value to the world's economy.
8Supporters say the technology will create wealth and improve living standards.
9Some go as far as saying AI will increase people's free time and help them be more creative.
10But others are worried the technology will lead to lost jobs.
11They point to Hollywood writers and actors who are worried that they will be replaced by technology.
12The internet arrived with a similar promise of more productivity, wealth and jobs.
13Last month, the French bank Natixis noted in its research that most of the wealth has gone to a few billionaires.
14And many of the jobs do not require highly paid, skilled workers.
15The bank warned in its report, "We should be cautious when estimating the effects of artificial intelligence on labor productivity."
16In July, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released its opinion research of 5,300 workers about AI.
17Some workers hope the technology will increase pay and job satisfaction.
18But they are also concerned that the technology could push people to work too hard.
19Such concerns are not unfounded.
20History has shown the economic impact of technological progress is generally uncertain, unequal and even harmful.
21Johnson recently published a book, Power and Progress, with Daron Acemoglu, another economist from MIT.
22They studied technological progress over the last 1,000 years including clothing production, train travel, and even food shopping.
23The two economists looked at an invention called the spinning jenny that made it easier to turn cotton and wool into yarn.
24They said the device helped clothing production and created wealth for many people in the late 1700s.
25However, it also increased the demand for cotton and led to longer hours for workers.
26The demand also led to the growth of slavery in the southern United States.
27Johnson noted that it is easier to create something new than to make sure it works for everyone.
28His book shows how the arrival of rail travel improved the lives of many people in England in the 1800s.
29People were able to travel longer distances and eat fresh food because it could move faster from farms to cities.
30On the other hand, Johnson said self-checkout technology at food stores does not lower the cost or make life easier for people.
31All it does is reduce the number of workers and help businesses lower labor costs.
32As for AI technology, Johnson wonders if it will make existing inequalities worse, or "could it help us get back to something fairer?"
33I'm Dan Friedell.
1Throughout history, technological progress has brought new wealth but has not always improved people's lives. Economists now say it is not clear whether artificial intelligence (AI) will help or hurt society. 2Simon Johnson teaches economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology near Boston. He said AI has a lot of possibilities. But he added, "We are at a fork in the road." A fork in the road is an expression used to describe a situation where the outcome is uncertain. 3Wealth, jobs and productivity 4McKinsey is a business consulting company. It said AI could add between $14 trillion and $22 trillion of value to the world's economy. 5Supporters say the technology will create wealth and improve living standards. Some go as far as saying AI will increase people's free time and help them be more creative. 6But others are worried the technology will lead to lost jobs. They point to Hollywood writers and actors who are worried that they will be replaced by technology. 7The internet arrived with a similar promise of more productivity, wealth and jobs. Last month, the French bank Natixis noted in its research that most of the wealth has gone to a few billionaires. And many of the jobs do not require highly paid, skilled workers. 8The bank warned in its report, "We should be cautious when estimating the effects of artificial intelligence on labor productivity." 9In July, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released its opinion research of 5,300 workers about AI. Some workers hope the technology will increase pay and job satisfaction. But they are also concerned that the technology could push people to work too hard. 10Lessons from history 11Such concerns are not unfounded. History has shown the economic impact of technological progress is generally uncertain, unequal and even harmful. 12Johnson recently published a book, Power and Progress, with Daron Acemoglu, another economist from MIT. They studied technological progress over the last 1,000 years including clothing production, train travel, and even food shopping. 13The two economists looked at an invention called the spinning jenny that made it easier to turn cotton and wool into yarn. They said the device helped clothing production and created wealth for many people in the late 1700s. However, it also increased the demand for cotton and led to longer hours for workers. The demand also led to the growth of slavery in the southern United States. 14Johnson noted that it is easier to create something new than to make sure it works for everyone. His book shows how the arrival of rail travel improved the lives of many people in England in the 1800s. People were able to travel longer distances and eat fresh food because it could move faster from farms to cities. 15On the other hand, Johnson said self-checkout technology at food stores does not lower the cost or make life easier for people. All it does is reduce the number of workers and help businesses lower labor costs. 16As for AI technology, Johnson wonders if it will make existing inequalities worse, or "could it help us get back to something fairer?" 17I'm Dan Friedell. 18Dan Friedell adapted this story for Learning English based on a report by Reuters. 19____________________________________________________ 20Words in This Story 21outcome -n. the result of an event or choice 22consulting -n. a business based on doing research and providing suggestions to another company about how to be more successful 23standards -n. a level of quality 24cautious -n. careful 25yarn -n. fibers of plants or animal hair that a refined and used to make clothing, fabrics or floor coverings 26self-checkout -n. a machine or system at a food store that permits customers to pay for items without help from anyone else 27____________________________________________________ 28We want to hear from you. Do you believe AI will lead to good jobs and more wealth for many people? 29Here is how our comment system works: 30Each time you return to comment on the Learning English site, you can use your account and see your comments and replies to them. Our comment policy is here.